A Momentous Day

What a momentous day! I wasn't intending to watch the election results, but I woke up at 4:15, so put R4 on and all the results were coming in, so I got up and watched the coverage from 4:45. A 'super majority' for Labour with 412 seats against the Conservative's 121. I found this election fascinating from a democracy perspective, as the headline outcome disguises a more interesting story.

And on a very hectic day at No.10, top prize goes to Larry the cat who had a nice snooze outside No.10 in front of the reporters and photographers, after Rishi left and before Keir arrived. He's been there since 2011 and must be the longest serving staffer at No.10!

For My Record Only:
Some facts from the results with 1 seat to declare:
- Labour 412 seats (up 211), share of vote 33.8% (up only 1.6% on last UK election, but took 36% of vote share in Scotland up 17%);
- Conservatives 121 seats (down 251), vote 23.7% (down 19.9%)
- Reform 5 seats (up 5), vote 14.3% (up 12.4%)
- Lib Dems 71 seats (up 63), vote 12.2% (up 0.6%)
- SNP 9 seats (down 38), vote 2.5% (down 1.3%) [obvs UK percentages not Scotland ones]

In Wales the Labour vote was down 4%, but with the Conservative collapse and Reform rise, Labour won a landslide.

So this was largely about the complete collapse of both the Conservative and the SNP vote and the rise of Reform. The polling expert said that if there had been no Reform, then the Conservatives would have held two thirds of the seats in which they were defeated. Of course, it's difficult to tell if this (bizarrely given Labour's huge victory) is indicative of a move to the right in vote share as in Europe, or just a bashing of the Conservative party for partygate and the Liz Truss mini budget and its consequences, plus blaming them for the cost of living crisis. Labour did actually lose 7 seats, four of those (and nearly another two high profile names), due to independents standing as pro-Palestinian candidates. 

The other point of note is the very low turnout of 59.9% (down 7.4%) and only one other election has been lower (2001 - 59.4%). 

It's been clear that the Labour manifesto was big on rhetoric, but low on  detailed policies and plans (which clearly worked as a tactic), so it will be interesting to see what a super majority leads to in terms of actions not in the manifesto and how that is received. 

I liked that Rishi Sunak had nice words for the incoming PM and that Sir Keir had some nice words for Rishi. I don't think I've ever heard an outgoing PM apologise to the country in his speech before. I like the cultural changes being flagged for parliament / politics by Sir Keir by promising to build a government of service and restore trust in politics. It's really good to see the UK's first female Chancellor (about bloody time!)

Spare a thought for how brutal the UK election process is and how efficient and personally harsh the handover timetable is:
- Polling stations closed 10pm;
- Exit poll released at 10pm forecasting a Labour landslide;
- First result 11:15pm;
- Candidates and current MP's, ministers and shadow ministers receive their results overnight (bar a few);
- 10:30am outgoing PM gives leaving speech outside No.10 and moves out;
- 10:50 outgoing PM sees the King to resign;
- 11:57 incoming PM arrives at Buckingham Palace where the King asks him to form the next Govt;
- 12:38 incoming PM gives speech outside No.10 and moves in. 
- Afternoon - new cabinet appointed.