'Humble in the Face of Nature'

G and I went for a short walk on Kelling Heath this morning in partial sun before the rain started at lunchtime and lasted all afternoon. I was keen to get out as I was concerned what the leaking of a new lockdown for England might mean for our walks (I'm still waiting for Boris to hold the briefing over 2.5 hours since it was first expected).  The view is over Weybourne to the sea and the title is a quote from the PM from the briefing regarding the need for a policy change. This afternoon I started re-watching s3 of The Crown before s4 is released mid Nov.

Day 230 / Day 18 of The 3 Tiers (for my record only)
UK deaths up 326 to 46,555 (revised basis), with  21,915 new daily cases, 10,918 patients in hospital and 978 in ventilator beds. Total cases to date in the UK passes 1m. Globally total cases to date passes 46m, up 1m in 2 days. I can't believe how quickly rates are going up in Italy, 31,758 new cases today, it was 19,644 a week ago. The PM, CSA and CMO give a much delayed press conference to announce a new lockdown for England after it was leaked last night (an investigation is underway into the leaking). It will run from Thurs 5th Nov until Wed 2nd Dec. We have been told again that we should stay at home except for the usual reasons such as food shopping, work (if can't wfh), medical reasons and exercise. Different households can't mix inside, but 1 person can meet another person from a different household in a socially distanced manner outside to exercise. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops, hairdressers, leisure will close (except for take-aways). Schools, universities, courts and construction to remain open (I'm concerned about schools remaining open given what the ONS reported yesterday), The clinically vulnerable and those over 60 should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise contact with others, and the clinically extremely vulnerable should not go to work if they can’t wfh. After the lockdown we will return to the 3 tier system. Furlough is being extended until 2nd Dec. The change in stance was driven by new projections given to Boris yesterday showing a big change in the virus outlook (hospital admissions exceed 1st peak within 6 weeks with a similar no. of daily deaths as at the peak) and info on what that means for hospital capacity (exceeds 1st peak 20/11 and runs out soon after) ....but that was just the next 6 weeks with the CSA saying the 2nd wave has the potential to be twice as bad or more than the 1st wave.  The PM made it clear what this would mean for doctors having to make life / death decisions on who to treat and the knock on impact on other procedures such as cancer treatment - a 'medical disaster'. He said the risk is that for the first time the NHS will not be there for us and our families. So he finished by telling us to Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives. 

Prof Devi Sridhar was interviewed on BBC News and I agree will her stance that in order to really control the virus we need robust border restrictions to avoid re-importing the virus; good public health messaging so people comply; and robust Test, Trace and (most importantly) Isolate with strategic testing and 'rewarding' the altruistic behaviour of self isolating.