getting warmer

the sun returns
it gets warmer

I saw the news reports. This was a bad storm and the consequences weren't because of a lack of resources. The snow was simply too deep for rescue workers to get through and rescue workers wound up rescuing rescue workers. 

Work tomorrow. Hopefully another lovely, mellow week. Only four days and then three days off again. 

The US has spent 5.6% of its annual defense budget and destroyed nearly half of Russia's military capability. That is a big deal. 

Russia's military reputation is damaged. Their diplomatic prestige is damaged. Only four countries actually support Russia, everyone else hedges. The Chinese defense minister said the country would not provide one bullet. Such a collapse in prestige will cripple the ability of its business and government to trade and engage with the international community. It will inflict damage for generations. 

Putin thought Trump supporters would win election and Americans would throw a fit over the increase in price in gas. But we've continued to support Ukraine. In fact, even Michael McCaul, the lead Republican on the House foreign affairs committee, said Republicans would not advocate an end to US funding and he wants Biden to provide longer-range artillery called the army tactical missile system. "When we give what they need, they win."

Putin thought he could blackmail Germany. Germany weaned itself off Russian energy. They were dependent on Russia for 55% of their gas. They dropped their overall consumption by 25% and found alternate suppliers including Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France. They aren't likely to have blackouts this winter.

Putin thought Ukrainian refugees would fracture Europe. Poland and Ukraine have issues, but Polan sees Russia as genocide. Russia is a common enemy and Poland took in a million refugees from Ukraine. Nearly 60% have jobs there now. 

Zelensky's main fear is that we stop thinking about them, that we stop caring. Putin wants to make Ukrainians so desperate they give in, but also that they flee, and Europe says it has had enough of the refugees. As long as we continue to help the refugees, and provide weapons, Ukraine will win. Ukraine is doing its part and fighting smartly and bravely. We know our part. 

The anxiety Russians have been expressing online has more than doubled, primarily because of the war, and related things, like escalation of conflict with the West, possibly use of nuclear weapons, sabotage, the draft, and possible hostilities coming to Russia. Today a drone hit Russia's Engels-2 air base. This is 350 miles from the border. Supposedly the military brought the drone down, but even if they did, it still shows that Ukraine can get in and bring the fight to Russia. Also, there are a lot of suggestions that the military did NOT intercept the drone. A former Russian commander says that Russia cannot stop Ukraine's strikes inside Russia. Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin said that older Soviet Union systems are not able to deal with drones and HIMARS. "Our air defense came up ready for the last colonial war." 

The loss from that strike may seem small, but it shows Ukraine can stride deep. The strikes have decreased the Russian air force's level of combat readiness. Two of their planes were destroyed. Russia only has so many Tu-95 planes. The bigger deal is psychological, helping Ukraine and hurting Russia. 

Between Christmas and Boxing Day, Russia lost another five tanks.