Black Swan

My paper informs me that all domestic poultry are now (since 7 Nov) required to be kept indoors, as a control measure for avian/bird flu - the H5N1 virus (a form of flu). These guys don't seem to have got the memo

We are all virus experts now; the current strain has an R number of 100 in birds. It is causing severe loss of wild species - especially those that breed in dense colonies like gannets and puffins. The dense conditions in which we keep commercial poultry for meat or eggs are as bad or worse. The virus is devastating for the livelihoods of poultry farmers, hence the government lock-down

Will confining these two indoors make a difference? I don't know. Ducks and geese are apparently that feared Typhoid Mary spectre, the Asymptomatic Carrier. But if the virus is already widespread in wild populations, do a few scattered domestic poultry have a significant effect? Is it more a matter of equity and solidarity, like not holding drinks-parties?

In a very small number of cases, H5N1 has jumped the species barrier (actually, the class barrier, but not the kind you usually hear about) from birds to humans. A high proportion of these people have died - possibly 60%. We virus experts now know that epidemic conditions create lots of new variants, some of which may be more transmissible - including being more transmissible accross this comforting barrier

Tonight is a dark night, wind howling, rain beating against the window. Dark thoughts impinge. Like a goose contemplating Christmas