Lockdown Day 15: A different reality

The Dizzle and Mystic Em left The Simpsons paused on TV and something about this scene resonated, so I decided to join the cast and make a speech (see below). I feel like I am broadcasting from a parallel dimension anyway. Every morning I wake up and realise that this whole Covid thing is not just a bad dream; every day I acclimatise anew with a greater or lesser degree of success. So:

One of the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic of 2020 will be to completely shift our understanding of risk and value. If you take any commercial company that is planning for the future, its shareholders and its board will undoubtedly have to think about contingency arrangements. A further epidermic could happen in 50 years time, equally it could happen in 10 years time or next year. What kind of reserves and what kind of arrangements will the average company have to put in place to weather another epidemic generated financial storm? Our global capitalistic economy depends on a certain appetite for taking risks which may no longer be the norm.

Equally, in the public sector risk appetite tends to be based on the comfort zone created by experience. The reason for the current shortages and inadequacies around personal protective equipment for clinicians is that it was never seen as a cost worth bearing. You cannot easily create a stock of things that might only be needed once every 50 years. It deteriorates and needs replacing according to a regular cycle thus requiring a regularised approach to investment in something that will often just be thrown away or recycled. That investment might be on a three to five-year basis and represents a significant overhead on the long-term costs of a healthcare system. 

Individuals might also start behaving in a risk averse way and the financial services sector might offer products that help them manage and mitigate the risk. For instance you might be able to buy a bond which is part insurance and part saving so that should you be unable to work for six months you could draw on it. Or you might just arrange your finances so that you save and always have the equivalent of six months liquidity available to you. This could lead to higher charges to consumers as professionals such as plumbers and electricians build a regular savings factor into their costs. Or the state might mandate people to have contingency funds in the same way they are now expected to develop their own pensions. The two products could even be linked - your pension could be flexed to offer you an income during a lockdown. 

So unless we want to ignore the lessons of this epidemic, we will need to think about long term models that mean less short term thinking and more planning for the future. Less instant consumerism and more sustainability, Just as some ancient civilisations held grain reserves to see them through years of bad harvests, as a society we will need to think about setting aside our resources on the basis that the world is no longer the safe place we once thought it was. We might even realise that supermarket workers, nurses, doctors, delivery people, police, refuse collectors, care home staff, paramedics and cleaners deserve our money more than bloated hedge fund managers, insanely overpaid footballers, and puerile instagram influencers. And we might reflect on how our cultural institutions, musicians, artists and educators have kept us nourished and entertained and deserve our support more than we ever realised.


If we can get through this we could learn a valuable lesson...