Another Blinder

I had foolishly hoped that this might be a day of comparative Brexit calm. That was a silly notion, wasn’t it? Having not said much at all since the referendum, I now feel the need to record in my journal the extraordinary highlights of these extraordinary times. I’m writing this up a couple of days after the event, having had time to think, which has not been easy because of being struck down with the heaviest cold I’ve suffered in years. Nothing serious in the grand scheme of things, of course, but bloody miserable all the same. 

I continue to believe that Theresa May is playing a blinder here. Pulling the vote on the deal on Monday wasn’t a total surprise, or at least it wouldn't have been if not for the fact she sent some of her most loyal troops out that very morning to insist that the vote was definitely, absolutely going ahead. I thought that a little odd, even for a deeply duplicitous Tory, until I understood it was all about pissing off some of her colleagues, just enough of them and just sufficiently to see a few tantrums being thrown and the sending of enough letters of no-confidence to trigger a confidence vote by her party’s MPs. It was a vote of confidence she knew she was going to win. In so doing, she has prevented such a vote being called again at a time when she knew she would be more vulnerable. I tell you. You may not like her politics, but her out-manoeuvering of her fellow Conservatives is a joy to behold.

It’s been clear for a while now that the current negotiated deal is the One Deal. There is no other deal. And it’s hard to imagine how any other deal would have been possible anyway. There is a strong sense that, regardless of the players involved, this whole process has been following an inexorable logic. For all the refusal of politicians on both sides to accept the political realities, the endgame was inevitably going to be the one we now have. 

May has negotiated the best deal we were ever going to get. In my humble, non-expert opinion, she’s done as well as anyone was ever going to do. The only way she can get this over the final formidable hurdle is by appeal to a second referendum. She will resist this option with all her considerable political will, but it seems unavoidable. The electorate will have to choose between the One Deal, No Deal or No Brexit. The result could go any of those three ways. I wouldn’t want to assume anything. 

It won’t be pretty. It will almost certainly be painful. But it’s necessary. It’s not about having got it wrong the first time. There is no right and wrong here. It’s an incredibly complex decision and we all bring different criteria to the decision-making process. Looking back, whatever happens, I’d just like to know that it was an informed decision around concrete choices, made with our eyes as wide open as possible. That is the only way to reduce the unavoidable recriminations in the fallout of whatever happens. We will fall out but, this way, I think we all stand a better chance of making up again over time. I really hope so. For me, right now, the final result is of lesser importance than undertaking a proper democratic process.

If there was to be a government of unity formed to take this forward, I would love to see Caroline Lucas lead it in order to cut through traditional party lines. I have a feeling she would be a strong people’s choice.

I’ve possibly had too much time to think these last few days. It might be time to shut up.